Greater Victoria’s real estate market has shifted into buyer’s market territory for the first time in more than a decade. But what does that actually mean for buyers and sellers?
According to the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB), September 2026 marked the first time Greater Victoria entered a buyer’s market since January 2015, excluding the unusual market conditions during the pandemic.
It’s a notable change, particularly after several years of fluctuating inventory, interest rates and buyer activity. But while the shift is worth paying attention to, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re heading toward significant price declines.
For buyers, there may be opportunities to negotiate and make decisions with less pressure. For sellers, pricing and presentation have become increasingly important. And for anyone considering a move, understanding what’s happening within their particular neighbourhood and price range remains far more useful than relying on a market-wide headline.
Let’s take a closer look.
What Happened in Greater Victoria’s September Real Estate Market?
The Victoria Real Estate Board reported 463 property sales in September 2026, a decrease of 16.4% compared to September 2025 and 21.7% fewer than in August.
At the same time, active listings increased to 3,811 properties at the end of September, up 4.1% from August and 3.2% compared to the same time last year.
A few key figures from the September report:
- Total sales: 463, down 16.4% year-over-year
- Single-family home sales: 239, down 17.3% year-over-year
- Condominium sales: 137, down 11% year-over-year
- Active listings: 3,811, up 3.2% year-over-year
- Victoria Core single-family benchmark: $1,280,100, down 2% year-over-year
- Greater Victoria single-family benchmark: $1,150,300, down 1.5% year-over-year
These figures point to a market where fewer properties are selling relative to the number available.
That relationship is an important part of understanding why VREB has characterized September as a buyer’s market.
What Actually Defines a Buyer’s Market?
One of the measures used to assess market conditions is the sales-to-active-listings ratio.
Put simply, it compares the number of homes sold during a month with the number of active listings available.
The Victoria Real Estate Board generally considers a ratio between 17% and 28% indicative of a balanced market. Below 17% suggests conditions favour buyers, while a ratio above 28% suggests conditions favour sellers.
In September, that ratio moved below the balanced-market threshold.
What does that look like in practice?
When there are more properties available relative to the number of buyers making purchases, buyers generally have more choice. They may have additional time to compare properties, conduct due diligence and negotiate terms.
Sellers, meanwhile, face more competition from other listings and may need to adjust their expectations around pricing and timelines.
It’s important to recognize, though, that a buyer’s market doesn’t mean every property is suddenly negotiable or that prices will decline across the board.
Market conditions can vary considerably between property types, neighbourhoods and price ranges.
A well-maintained family home in Oak Bay, for example, may attract a very different level of interest than a condominium in a neighbourhood with a larger supply of similar listings.
That’s why we always encourage looking beyond the overall statistics when evaluating a specific property.
Does a Buyer’s Market Mean Home Prices Are Falling?
Not necessarily, and this is where the distinction between market activity and property values becomes particularly important.
While September’s sales figures show a noticeable slowdown, benchmark prices have experienced comparatively modest changes.
The benchmark price for a single-family home in the Victoria Core was $1,280,100 in September, approximately 2% lower than a year earlier.
Across Greater Victoria, the single-family benchmark was $1,150,300, a year-over-year decrease of 1.5%.
These figures suggest that although market conditions have softened, we haven’t seen the same degree of movement in property values as we have in sales activity.
There are several reasons this can happen.
Sellers may choose to hold off rather than accept a price that doesn’t align with their expectations. Buyers may take longer to make decisions, particularly when they have more properties to choose from. And homes that are priced appropriately for current conditions can still attract interest.
It’s also worth remembering that benchmark prices represent a typical property within a particular market segment. They don’t tell us exactly how much an individual home has gained or lost in value.
The more relevant question for most homeowners isn’t whether Greater Victoria’s benchmark is down 2%. It’s how comparable properties in their neighbourhood are performing today.
What This Means if You’re Buying a Home in Greater Victoria
For buyers, particularly those who have been watching the market over the past several years, the current environment may offer some welcome breathing room.
During more competitive periods, buyers often had to make decisions quickly, sometimes with limited opportunities to investigate a property’s condition or negotiate terms.
With more inventory available and fewer transactions taking place, some of that pressure has eased.
Depending on the property and the level of competition, buyers may have more opportunity to:
- Compare several suitable properties before making a decision
- Include appropriate conditions for financing, inspections or other due diligence
- Negotiate on price, possession dates or other terms
- Take additional time to understand a property’s condition and ongoing ownership costs
This can be particularly valuable for buyers relocating to Greater Victoria who are still getting to know the differences between communities.
Choosing between Oak Bay, Saanich, Sidney or the Westshore involves much more than comparing homes at similar price points. Commute times, neighbourhood amenities, property types and long-term lifestyle considerations all play a role.
A market with more choice can provide an opportunity to make those comparisons more thoughtfully.
That said, having more negotiating room doesn’t mean every seller will be willing to accept a substantial discount.
Desirable properties that are priced well can still attract multiple interested buyers, even in softer market conditions.
Rather than trying to predict the lowest possible point in the market, we’d encourage buyers to focus on finding a property that suits their needs, understanding its value and negotiating based on the circumstances of that particular listing.
What This Means if You’re Selling a Home in Greater Victoria
For sellers, September’s numbers reinforce something we’ve been discussing throughout much of 2026: pricing and presentation matter.
When buyers have more options, they’re often more selective about which properties deserve their attention.
A home that’s priced noticeably above comparable listings may struggle to generate interest, even if it has features that make it desirable.
And while a price adjustment can help reposition a listing, it doesn’t necessarily recreate the attention a property receives when it first comes to market.
This doesn’t mean sellers need to price aggressively below market value or assume they’ll have to accept less than their home is worth.
It means understanding how buyers are evaluating comparable properties and positioning a home accordingly.
For sellers, we’d focus on three things:
Understanding the competition. What else can a buyer purchase in the same price range? How does your home compare in terms of location, condition, layout and features?
Preparing the property thoughtfully. Professional photography, accurate floor plans, strong presentation and a comprehensive marketing strategy can help buyers understand the value a property offers.
Setting a price that reflects current conditions. Recent comparable sales are important, but so are active listings, days on market and the level of buyer interest in similar homes.
It’s also worth considering the bigger picture.
If you’re selling one property to purchase another, a softer market may create opportunities on the buying side as well. The outcome of both transactions matters more than focusing exclusively on the sale price of your current home.
And if you aren’t working toward a particular moving date, waiting may be a reasonable option. That decision should depend on your circumstances rather than an assumption that the market will necessarily improve by a certain date.
Will Greater Victoria Remain in a Buyer’s Market?
That’s the question we’ll be watching over the coming months.
While September represents a meaningful change in market conditions, one month of data doesn’t establish a lasting trend.
VREB Chair Fergus Kyne made that distinction in the September release, noting that the market had moved into buyer’s market territory while cautioning against drawing long-term conclusions from a single month.
Interest rates will continue to be one factor influencing buyer confidence and purchasing power.
If borrowing costs decline, some buyers who have been waiting may decide to enter the market. However, the impact will depend on broader economic conditions, affordability and how much demand returns.
Seasonality is another consideration.
Greater Victoria typically experiences changes in sales activity throughout the year, and the transition from summer into fall can influence both listing activity and buyer behaviour.
We’ll be paying particular attention to whether inventory remains elevated relative to sales, how long properties are taking to sell and whether benchmark prices show further movement.
We’ll also be watching the differences between property types and neighbourhoods, because those distinctions often tell us more than the board-wide numbers alone.
The Bigger Picture for Greater Victoria Real Estate
September’s results mark an important shift in Greater Victoria’s housing market, but they aren’t necessarily a reason for buyers or sellers to make dramatic changes to their plans.
For buyers, the current conditions may offer more choice, less urgency and greater flexibility when negotiating.
For sellers, success increasingly depends on understanding the competition, preparing a property well and establishing a pricing strategy that reflects today’s market.
And for those considering both a sale and a purchase, the balance between the two transactions deserves careful consideration.
Ultimately, a buyer’s market is a description of current market conditions, not a prediction of where prices will go next.
The most useful information will always be what’s happening in the neighbourhood, property type and price range relevant to your move.
At North Pacific Homes Group, we believe good real estate decisions start with understanding the market and how it relates to your individual circumstances.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Greater Victoria, we’re always happy to help you look at the numbers and talk through your options. Contact us.
Alex Hughes, REALTOR® | Personal Real Estate Corporation
North Pacific Homes Group | eXp Realty
Serving Greater Victoria and South Vancouver Island
Sources & Further Reading
- Victoria Real Estate Board: September 2026 Monthly Statistics and Market Report. vreb.org
- Victoria Real Estate Board: Monthly market statistics, benchmark prices and historical market information. vreb.org
- Bank of Canada: Policy interest rate announcements and monetary policy information. bankofcanada.ca
Market statistics reflect information reported by the Victoria Real Estate Board for September 2026. Real estate conditions vary by neighbourhood, property type and price range.
