If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Victoria, BC, or you’re watching the market from out of town, the start of 2026 has brought some meaningful shifts worth paying attention to.
We’re North Pacific Homes Group with eXp Realty, and as a Victoria-based real estate team, we spend every day working directly with buyers and sellers across Greater Victoria — from Oak Bay and Fairfield to Langford, Saanich, and the Peninsula.
In this market update, we’re breaking down the January 2026 Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) numbers and, more importantly, explaining what they actually mean for your real estate strategy as we head toward the spring market.
This isn’t just about stats. It’s about how today’s market conditions can work for you — whether you’re buying, selling, or planning a move to Victoria in 2026.
Victoria Real Estate Market Snapshot – January 2026
Let’s start with the big picture.
In January 2026, a total of 339 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region. That’s roughly 20% fewer sales compared to January of last year, and also down from December. In simple terms, buyer activity cooled at the start of the year.
At the same time, inventory continued to climb.
By the end of January, there were 2,624 active listings, representing about a 10% increase year-over-year, and an increase from December as well.
What does this tell us?
It tells us that Victoria is no longer in an ultra-competitive seller’s market like we saw during the pandemic years.
Buyers now have:
- More choice
- More time
- More negotiating power
Sellers, on the other hand, are operating in a more price-sensitive, negotiation-driven environment.
The Victoria Real Estate Board described January as sitting right on the line between a balanced market and a buyer’s market, largely because inventory is now meeting — and in some cases exceeding — demand.
That’s a major shift compared to what we saw just a few years ago.
Sales Breakdown by Property Type in Victoria
Not all segments of the Victoria housing market are behaving the same way. Here’s how January played out by property type.
🏡 Single-Family Homes
- 153 detached homes sold
- About a 21% decrease year-over-year
Detached homes, especially those priced above the median, are feeling the most pressure. Buyers are cautious, interest rates still matter, and overpricing is no longer forgiven by the market.
🏢 Condos
- 109 condo sales
- Roughly a 25% drop compared to January 2025
Condos saw the sharpest slowdown. Higher inventory, affordability concerns, and cautious investors are all contributing factors.
🏘 Townhomes
- 53 townhomes sold
- One of the only segments showing a slight year-over-year increase
Townhomes continue to stand out as a resilient segment. They offer a balance of space and affordability that appeals to first-time buyers, downsizers, and families priced out of detached homes.
What we’re seeing on the ground
From our experience working directly with clients:
- Well-priced townhomes and entry-level condos are still moving
- Detached homes require sharper pricing and stronger presentation
- Homes priced above market expectations are sitting longer and seeing price reductions
Victoria Home Prices: What’s Really Happening in 2026
Pricing is always the question we’re asked most, and it’s important to look beyond headlines.
Instead of averages, the Victoria Real Estate Board uses the MLS Home Price Index (HPI), which compares similar homes over time and gives a more accurate picture of real market movement.
January 2026 Benchmark Prices – Victoria Core
- Single-Family Home:
Approximately $1,265,500
▪ About 2.5% lower than January 2025
▪ Slightly higher than December - Condo:
Approximately $537,800
▪ About 1.5% lower year-over-year
▪ Also lower month-over-month
What this means in plain English
Prices in Victoria aren’t crashing — but they are softening.
We’re seeing:
- Small, controlled corrections
- A market that’s adjusting rather than collapsing
- Stability replacing volatility
For buyers, this means:
- Less competition
- More conditional offers being accepted
- Greater ability to negotiate price, terms, and dates
For sellers, this means:
- Pricing correctly from day one is critical
- Professional presentation matters more than ever
- The market will not “forgive” overpricing the way it did in 2021 or early 2022
Are We in a Buyer’s Market in Victoria?
One of the most useful indicators we track is the Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio.
Here’s how it works:
- Below 17% = Buyer’s market
- 17%–28% = Balanced market
- Above 28% = Seller’s market
In January 2026, Victoria landed at the lower end of the balanced range, brushing up against buyer’s market territory.
This lines up perfectly with what we’re seeing locally.
The key takeaway: There is no single “Victoria market”
Instead, there are dozens of micro-markets, each behaving differently.
For example:
- Some condo buildings are already acting like buyer’s markets
- Higher-end detached homes are slower and more negotiable
- Well-located townhomes and entry-level properties remain balanced
Understanding your specific neighbourhood and price range matters more now than at any point in recent years.
What This Means for the Rest of 2026
January followed a familiar seasonal pattern — slower starts like we saw in 2023 and 2024 — but with one critical difference:
Inventory is now much higher.
That inventory is what’s keeping a lid on prices.
Looking ahead, the biggest factors shaping the Victoria real estate market in 2026 will be:
- Interest rate direction
- Consumer confidence
- Global economic pressures
- Whether inventory continues to rise
If interest rates ease later this year, buyer activity could pick up quickly. However, if inventory keeps building at the same time, that demand may simply absorb listings rather than push prices sharply higher.
In other words, we’re likely heading into a more stable, more predictable market, not another frenzy.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Be Doing Right Now
If you’re buying in Victoria:
This is one of the healthiest buying environments we’ve seen in years.
- You can take your time
- Do proper due diligence
- Negotiate confidently
If you’re selling:
Strategy matters more than ever.
- Accurate pricing
- Strong marketing
- Smart timing
Homes that are prepared and priced correctly are still selling — but the margin for error is much smaller.
If you’re relocating to Victoria or Greater Victoria:
This is exactly the kind of market where local guidance can save you tens of thousands of dollars.
Each neighbourhood — Oak Bay, Fairfield, James Bay, Saanich, Langford, North Saanich, Sidney, and beyond — behaves differently.
Final Thoughts from North Pacific Homes Group
To sum it up:
- Sales are down
- Inventory is up
- Prices are gently softening
- Victoria is sitting on the edge between a balanced and buyer’s market
If you’d like a hyper-local breakdown for your specific neighbourhood, or want to talk through a buying or selling strategy for 2026, we’re always happy to help.
We’re North Pacific Homes Group with eXp Realty, and we specialize in helping clients navigate the Victoria and Greater Victoria real estate market with clarity, confidence, and local expertise.
Reach out anytime — and we’ll make sure you’re making informed decisions in today’s market.
Thanks for being here,
Alex Hughes, REALTOR®, Personal Real Estate Corporation — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
Ricki-Lee Jewell, REALTOR® — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
Steven Reilander, REALTOR® — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
