November flipped the script on Greater Victoria real estate — and while the headlines might sound dramatic, the real story is far more nuanced.
Sales dropped sharply last month, inventory shifted in a very seasonal way, and interest rates continued to shape buyer psychology more than buyer urgency. For anyone planning a move in 2026, understanding what actually happened in November is critical.
At North Pacific Homes Group with eXp Realty, we review the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB) statistics every month to help our clients make informed, confident decisions. In this update, we’re breaking down:
- What caused November’s sharp sales decline
- How buyers really responded to the recent interest rate cut
- What inventory and pricing trends mean for sellers
- Why this market feels balanced — and where leverage exists
- How November sets the stage for spring 2026
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just planning ahead, here’s what you need to know about Greater Victoria real estate right now.
November 2025 Sales: A Sharp Drop, But Not a Collapse
The headline number from November immediately caught attention:
451 properties sold across Greater Victoria.
That represents:
- 26.9% fewer sales than October
- 18.1% fewer sales than November 2024
This was one of the largest month-to-month declines we’ve seen this year. At first glance, that might suggest the market is stalling — but context matters.
November is traditionally a slower month in Victoria real estate. Seasonal slowdowns are normal as daylight shortens, holidays approach, and many buyers pause major decisions. What made November 2025 stand out wasn’t just seasonality — it was buyer psychology.
Despite a recent interest rate cut earlier this fall, buyers didn’t rush back into the market. Instead, many stepped back, reassessed, and began planning rather than acting.
Breaking Down Sales by Property Type
When we look closer at the numbers, the story becomes more layered.
Single-Family Homes
- 241 sales
- Down 8.4% year-over-year
Detached homes saw a modest decline compared to condos. This tells us that higher price points and affordability constraints are still influencing buyer behaviour, even with easing rates.
Condos
- 119 sales
- Down 36% year-over-year
Condos experienced the sharpest pullback in activity. This may seem surprising given their role as entry-level housing, but it reflects a cautious buyer mindset — particularly among first-time buyers who are highly sensitive to rate expectations and monthly payments.
Interest Rates: Improved Sentiment, Not Immediate Action
One of the biggest misconceptions we see is the belief that a rate cut automatically triggers a surge in sales. November showed us that’s not how today’s buyers operate.
The Bank of Canada’s rate cut earlier this fall helped:
- Improve buyer sentiment
- Ease pressure on variable-rate holders
- Nudge fixed rates slightly downward
What it didn’t do was create urgency.
Instead, many buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach. They’re watching inflation, monitoring upcoming rate announcements, and preparing for what they believe could be better conditions in 2026.
From our conversations with clients, buyers aren’t gone — they’re just planning.
Active Listings: More Choice Than Last Year
By the end of November, Greater Victoria had:
3,152 active listings
That’s:
- 7.9% fewer listings than October
- 11.1% more listings than November 2024
This tells us two important things.
First, inventory easing into the holidays is normal. Many sellers choose to wait until spring, especially if they’re not under pressure to move.
Second — and more importantly — buyers still had more choice than last year. Even with fewer listings month-over-month, selection remains healthy.
This balance between supply and demand is what’s giving buyers time, leverage, and negotiating room.
Pricing Trends in the Victoria Core
Price movement in November revealed a clear divergence between property types.
Single-Family Home Benchmark
$1,276,700
- Down 2.8% year-over-year
Detached homes are seeing mild downward pressure. This doesn’t indicate a crash — rather, it reflects a market where buyers are price-sensitive and unwilling to stretch beyond perceived value.
Condo Benchmark
$553,100
- Up 2% year-over-year
Condos remain surprisingly resilient. Demand from downsizers, entry-level buyers, and investors watching the rate environment continues to support pricing, even as sales volume softened.
This split highlights an important takeaway: Greater Victoria is not one market — it’s many micro-markets moving at different speeds.
A Balanced to Buyer-Friendly Market Emerges
The VREB Chair summarized November by saying buyers had “plenty of options and time to decide.” That single statement captures the current market perfectly.
We’re no longer in a frenzied seller’s market.
We’re not in a distressed buyer’s market.
We’re in a balanced market with buyer-friendly characteristics.
What This Means for Buyers
If you’re buying in Greater Victoria right now, conditions are improving in meaningful ways:
- More negotiating room
- Slower pace of decision-making
- Less competition and fewer bidding wars
- Better due diligence conditions
- Greater ability to include subjects and inspections
For many buyers, November wasn’t about purchasing — it was about preparing. Pre-approvals, neighbourhood research, and timing strategy are all top of mind as 2026 approaches.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, November reinforced a critical truth:
Pricing strategy matters more than ever.
Homes that are:
- Properly priced
- Well-presented
- Professionally marketed
are still selling.
Homes that are:
- Overpriced
- Poorly staged
- Relying on outdated market expectations
are sitting — sometimes for weeks longer than necessary.
In today’s market, presentation and positioning aren’t optional. Buyers have choice, and they’re comparing everything.
Why Many Buyers Are Looking Toward Spring 2026
One of the most important insights from November is what didn’t happen: a post-rate-cut surge.
Instead of jumping in late 2025, many buyers are aligning their plans with:
- Potential additional rate cuts
- Improved affordability
- More spring inventory
This forward-looking mindset suggests that November’s slowdown may actually be laying the groundwork for a stronger spring.
December Rate Announcement: What to Expect
As we approach the December Bank of Canada announcement, expectations are relatively measured.
Most analysts believe the Bank will either:
- Hold rates steady, or
- Deliver a very small additional cut if inflation continues to soften
Nothing dramatic — but either outcome would support gradually improving confidence as we move into early 2026.
Even small, incremental changes matter. They influence psychology, planning, and long-term affordability more than immediate action.
Zooming Out: The 2025 Market Pattern
When we step back and look at the year as a whole, a clear pattern emerges:
- Strong spring
- Stable summer
- Softer fall
- A November slowdown amplified by seasonality and cautious buyer psychology
This rhythm is important. It suggests that the fundamentals of the Greater Victoria housing market remain intact — demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s just paused.
If rates trend downward gradually and inventory remains balanced, spring 2026 has the potential to be more active than many expect.
Strategy Matters More Than Timing
One of the biggest mistakes we see is trying to “time the market” perfectly. In reality, success in real estate comes from strategy, not guesswork.
For buyers, that means:
- Understanding neighbourhood-level trends
- Knowing where value exists
- Structuring strong but sensible offers
For sellers, that means:
- Pricing based on current data, not past peaks
- Preparing your home to stand out
- Launching with a clear plan, not hope
At North Pacific Homes Group with eXp Realty, our role is to help you navigate these decisions with clarity — whether you’re acting now or planning for 2026.
Thinking About Buying or Selling in 2026?
November’s market wasn’t about urgency — it was about positioning.
If you’re planning a move in 2026, now is the time to:
- Understand how interest rates affect your buying power
- Track neighbourhood-specific trends
- Build a timeline that works for your goals, not the headlines
We work with buyers and sellers across Greater Victoria every day, and we’d be happy to walk you through what these numbers mean for you.
If you have questions about timing, pricing, or strategy, reach out to us at North Pacific Homes Group with eXp Realty. We’re here to help you move forward with confidence — whenever the time is right.
Thanks for being here,
Alex Hughes, REALTOR®, Personal Real Estate Corporation — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
Ricki-Lee Jewell, REALTOR® — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
Steven Reilander, REALTOR® — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
