If you’re thinking about buying a home in Victoria, BC, the fall market has delivered some of the most interesting — and promising — shifts we’ve seen in years. While headlines focus on rising sales, steady prices, and cooling rates, there’s a lot happening beneath the surface that smart buyers should understand.
At North Pacific Homes Group, eXp Realty, we specialize in helping buyers navigate Victoria’s fast-moving housing market with clarity and confidence. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, upsizing, downsizing, or relocating to Vancouver Island, the trends emerging from October 2025 offer real opportunities.
Let’s break down what happened in the market, what’s driving the changes, and — most importantly — what it means for you if you’re planning to buy in Greater Victoria.
October 2025: A Busy Month and a Shift in Buyer Behaviour
October wasn’t just active — it was the busiest October for single-family home sales since 2020. That’s significant, especially considering the past few years have been defined by interest rate volatility, buyer hesitation, and fluctuating inventory.
Here’s the snapshot:
- 617 properties sold in Greater Victoria
- That’s down 6% year-over-year, but up 11% from September
- Typically, sales cool going into fall — this year, they picked up
In other words, momentum is building at a time of year when we usually see a slowdown. And that signals a shift in buyer psychology.
A Balanced Market — Finally
According to the Victoria Real Estate Board, the market remains reasonably balanced. After years of extreme seller’s market conditions and rapid price swings, balanced conditions offer a welcome return to stability.
For buyers, this means:
- More negotiation room
- Less competition compared to the 2021–2022 peak
- More choice of active listings
- A better chance at securing contingencies (financing, inspection)
When buyers feel they can move thoughtfully — not just react — confidence naturally increases.
Detached Homes Take the Lead While Condos Slow Down
October’s sales numbers revealed an interesting divide between housing types:
🏡 1. Single-Family Homes
- 350 sales in October
- Up 2.9% year-over-year
- Highest October activity since 2020
Single-family homes are seeing renewed interest as rates ease and buyers regain buying power. Many purchasers who were priced out during the 2021 peak are cautiously stepping back in.
🏢 2. Condos
- Sales down 15%
- But prices inched up 0.6% to roughly $551,000
This is one of the most telling indicators of entry-level demand: even as condo sales slow, prices continue to hold and even rise slightly. Buyers watching for affordability are staying active — especially those who anticipate lower rates in 2026.
🏘️ 3. Townhomes
- Sales remain relatively steady
- Strong option for families seeking space at a lower price point than detached homes
Balanced markets tend to drive townhouse demand, and we expect this segment to heat up first if rates continue falling.
Inventory Tightens Again — Just as Rates Ease
At the end of October, Greater Victoria had:
- 3,423 active listings
- Up 8% year-over-year
- But down from September
What does this mean?
Inventory is tightening right as interest rates drop — a combination that often leads to increased competition in the months ahead.
For buyers, this creates a window of opportunity:
- Prices are holding steady — not climbing
- There’s still good selection compared to the past few years
- Rate cuts may push more buyers into the market by early 2026
If you’re planning to buy, acting before the spring surge could be a strategic move.
Current Prices: Stable and Predictable
Here’s where prices stand today:
Single-Family Homes in the Victoria Core
- Benchmark: $1.276 million
- Down 1.8% year-over-year
- Slightly below September levels
This is a mild, manageable softening — not a correction. Prices are holding, suggesting strong underlying demand.
Condos in the Victoria Core
- Benchmark: $551,000
- Up 0.6% year-over-year
These modest increases are signs of a market finding equilibrium.
For buyers, price stability means predictability — something Victoria hasn’t offered consistently in years.
Regional Snapshots: Where Buyers Are Active
Victoria’s market strength is spread across multiple regions — a healthy sign for long-term stability.
Saanich East
- 62 single-family home sales
- Over $85 million in total value
Strong schools and established neighbourhoods keep demand high.
Oak Bay
- 27 sales
- Over $61 million in value
Still one of the most premium markets on Vancouver Island.
Langford + Colwood (Westshore)
- 68 combined sales
- Continues to thrive with new infrastructure, family-friendly pricing, and modern homes
The takeaway:
Demand is not concentrated in just one area. Buyers across price ranges and neighbourhood preferences are active.
The Bank of Canada Rate Cut — A Turning Point for Buyers
In late October, the Bank of Canada announced another interest rate cut. While it will take a few months for the full impact to filter into mortgage products, the psychological impact is immediate — and powerful.
Why Buyers Should Pay Attention
- Lower rates = increased borrowing power
- Renewals in 2026 may become more manageable
- Confidence tends to rise quickly after multiple rate cuts
- Historically, real estate activity rises within 3–6 months after sustained cuts
If the Bank stays on this path, early 2026 could bring a wave of reactivated buyers.
If you want to get ahead of that curve, now is the moment to prepare.
The Landmark Cowichan Tribes Decision — And What It Means for the Future of Housing
Beyond sales data and interest rates, one of the most important developments came from the BC Supreme Court: the Cowichan Tribes decision.
This ruling acknowledges longstanding Indigenous land rights and may influence:
- Municipal planning
- Zoning
- Development approvals
- Future housing supply across Vancouver Island
What Buyers Should Know
- Future development could require deeper collaboration with local First Nations.
- Projects may take longer — but will be more sustainable and inclusive.
- Expect more partnerships between nations, developers, and municipalities.
This is not just a legal milestone — it’s a generational shift that will shape how communities grow across the Island over the coming decades
What This All Means for Buyers in Victoria, BC
The October 2025 market is sending a clear message:
This is a stable, balanced, opportunity-filled moment for buyers.
Here’s what stands out:
1. Prices Are Holding — Not Surging
Buy now and you’re locking in at a stable point in the market.
2. Rates Are Trending Down
Lower rates will boost affordability heading into 2026.
3. Inventory Is Starting to Tighten
Strong selection won’t last forever — especially if demand rises in spring.
4. Demand Is Healthy Across All Regions
Whether you want the Core, Saanich, Oak Bay, or Westshore, the market is active and balanced.
5. Confidence Is Slowly Returning
Many buyers who stepped back in 2022–2024 are now reassessing their options.
Thinking About Buying? Let’s Make a Plan.
At North Pacific Homes Group, eXp Realty, we help buyers:
- Identify the best neighbourhoods for their budget and lifestyle
- Understand local data — not guesswork
- Find homes with long-term growth potential
- Negotiate confidently in a balanced market
- Connect with trusted mortgage advisors
- Time the market strategically, especially during rate changes
If you’re considering buying in Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Esquimalt, Langford, Colwood, View Royal, or the Westshore, now is the perfect time to reconnect with the market and plan your next move.
Ready to explore your buying options in Greater Victoria?
We’d love to connect to offer you personalized advice and local expertise. Let’s find a home that fits your lifestyle, budget, and long-term goals. Contact us.
