“Balanced market.”
If you’ve followed the Greater Victoria real estate market over the past several months, you’ve probably seen that phrase more than once.
It’s an accurate description of the June numbers. Sales and inventory remain within the Victoria Real Estate Board’s definition of a balanced market, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a significant advantage across the region.
But if you own a home in the premium market, particularly above approximately $1.5 million, that headline only tells part of the story.
Regional statistics are built from thousands of homes across every price range and property type. They provide valuable context, but they don’t always reflect what’s happening in the segment where relatively few homes sell each month.
Here’s what stood out from the June data, and what it could mean if you’re considering selling.
A Balanced Market… With More Choice
June saw 719 properties sell across the Victoria Real Estate Board region, down 5.5% from June 2025 and nearly unchanged from May.
Meanwhile, inventory continued to grow. More than 4,000 active listings were available at the end of the month, giving buyers considerably more options than they’ve had in recent years.
The sales-to-active listings ratio remained in the low 20% range, comfortably within the board’s definition of a balanced market.
Independent market analysis from House Hunt Victoria reached a similar conclusion, noting that seasonally adjusted conditions actually strengthened slightly in June after a softer spring.
For most buyers and sellers, that means a market where pricing has remained relatively stable and decisions can be made without the intense pressure that defined the pandemic years.
Why Premium Homes Behave Differently
Where things become more nuanced is at the higher end of the market.
One of the clearest windows into premium real estate is the waterfront single-family segment. While not every luxury home is waterfront, it provides one of the most consistent premium categories within the Victoria Real Estate Board data.
June highlighted several differences compared to the broader market:
- Waterfront homes sold for approximately 92% of asking price, compared with roughly 98% for the broader single-family market.
- They averaged 67 days on market, nearly twice the pace of many homes in the core market.
- Inventory within the premium segment has also continued to increase, giving buyers more opportunities to compare properties before making a decision.
Importantly, this doesn’t suggest that values are falling. Instead, it reflects a shift in negotiating leverage.
Today’s buyers simply have more choice.
Average Price Isn’t Always the Best Indicator
One statistic that often attracts attention is the average sale price.
In June, the average waterfront sale price was significantly lower than the same month last year. At first glance, that could suggest values have dropped sharply.
In reality, the explanation is often much simpler.
Only 22 waterfront homes sold during the month.
With such a small sample, the average can change dramatically depending on which homes happened to sell. A month with several modest waterfront properties and few trophy homes will naturally produce a lower average, even if underlying property values remain largely unchanged.
This is one reason we often place greater weight on the Home Price Index (Benchmark Price) when discussing market trends.
Unlike average sale price, the benchmark attempts to compare similar homes over time, reducing the impact of different types of properties selling each month.
The June benchmark data paints a much steadier picture:
- Oak Bay single-family benchmark values remained essentially unchanged year over year.
- Greater Victoria’s core single-family benchmark was down less than 1%.
- North Saanich’s benchmark actually increased modestly compared to last year.
That’s a much different story than the average sale price alone would suggest.
Every Home Has Its Own Story
Even benchmark prices have limitations.
They compare typical homes within a category. They don’t account for a recently replaced roof, updated electrical, exceptional craftsmanship, ocean views, or deferred maintenance.
Two homes on the same street can differ substantially in value because of their condition, layout, renovations, or location within the neighbourhood.
That’s why broad market statistics should be viewed as context rather than as a valuation of any individual property.
What This Means if You’re Planning to Sell
For homeowners considering selling a premium property this summer, June’s numbers point to a few practical takeaways.
Inventory is higher than we’ve seen in many years, meaning presentation and pricing matter more than ever.
Buyers have more opportunities to compare homes, they’re negotiating with greater confidence, and properties that are priced optimistically are often spending longer on the market.
That doesn’t mean sellers should be pessimistic.
The benchmark data suggests values have remained relatively stable across many premium neighbourhoods.
It does mean that preparation becomes increasingly important. Thoughtful pricing, careful presentation, professional marketing, and understanding how your home compares with today’s competition can have a greater impact than broad regional statistics.
Looking Beyond One Month
One final point is worth remembering.
Premium real estate moves in relatively small numbers.
Only 22 waterfront homes sold in June. Oak Bay recorded just a few dozen single-family sales over the entire month.
At those volumes, one month’s statistics should never be viewed in isolation.
Monthly averages will fluctuate. Individual sales can heavily influence the numbers. Looking at longer-term trends, alongside the specifics of your own property, almost always provides a more useful picture.
The market data helps us understand the broader environment.
It doesn’t determine what your individual home is worth.
Thinking About Selling?
If you’re considering selling over the next six to twelve months, we’d be happy to help you understand how your home fits into today’s market.
Rather than relying on regional averages alone, we can look at comparable sales, current competition, and the specific features that make your property unique, so you can make informed decisions based on your home, not just the headline statistics. Contact us.
Thanks for being here,
Alex Hughes, REALTOR®, Personal Real Estate Corporation — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
Ricki-Lee Jewell, REALTOR® — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
Steven Reilander, REALTOR® — North Pacific Homes Group (eXp Realty) | Victoria, BC Real Estate
